18% percent said they began their shopping before August 1st. That’s a dramatic shift compared to last year’s survey results, which show that 30%, or one-third, were going to start shopping on or before August 1st.

According to the results of the annual NPD back-to-school survey, this year’s back-to-school shopping season will get off to a later start. Of those consumers shopping for back-to-school, only 18% percent, or one-fifth, tell NPD they will have begun their shopping before August 1st. “That’s a dramatic shift compared to last year’s survey results, which show that 30%, or one-third, were going to start shopping on or before August 1st,” observed Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst for NPD Group. “I think that result is being validated by what we’re seeing at retail, already.” adding, “I think that retailers are keying into this shift as witnessed in their early back-to-school advertising. Look at some of the new TV ad campaigns. They are trying to reach kids’ inner being and desires. Kohl’s and Penney’s have launched campaigns that tap into kid’s inner ‘rock star’ and key into their imagination and individuality.”

Once the shopping begins, just how much are consumers planning to spend on their back-to-school purchases? Seventy-six percent of survey respondents said they plan to spend $500 or less, down 5% from last year. “Consumers have a budget in mind and go shopping with the intention of spending those dollars. This year, in the absence of ‘absolute necessity’ or a ‘must have’ item, the consumer will look for alternative purchases. I think the primary beneficiaries of that will be apparel and footwear.”

What do the NPD survey respondents say they intend to buy this back-to-school shopping season? School supplies are number one on their shopping lists, followed by clothes, shoes, and electronics. “Apparel and footwear are showing some greater expectations. And I think the place for the biggest growth potential is in apparel specialty stores.” noted Cohen.

The NPD survey, also took a look at the ‘why behind the buy’ or in other words, what motivates consumers to buy what they buy? “Consumers tell us the primary reason they buy something for back-to-school is value. The second most cited reason … an item is required by their children’s school, and then buying something as a replacement for an item they already own is third.” said Cohen.

In summing up the outlook for the 2007 back-to-school shopping season, Cohen said, “All in all it will be a good year for back-to-school, not a stellar one. Apparel will likely be the winner for growth. Beauty and footwear will also show some growth, but not like they have in recent years. And consumers will spend slightly more than they did last year.”

Methodology: NPD collected information for the back-to-school spending survey during the month of July 2007 using NPD’s online consumer panel. 35,000 panelists participated in this poll.