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"...consumers' short-term outlook remains favorable and
suggests the economy will continue to expand throughout the
first half of this year"
Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference
Board's Consumer Research Center
The
Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had
improved in December, edged up in January. The Index now stands
at 103.4 (1985=100), up from 102.7 in December. The Present
Situation Index increased to 110.9 from 105.7. The Expectations
Index, however, declined to 98.4 from 100.7.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative
sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted
for The Conference Board by TNS NFO. TNS NFO is one of the TNS
group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for January's
preliminary results was January 19th.
"Despite the slight retreat in expectations, consumers'
short-term outlook remains favorable and suggests the economy
will continue to expand throughout the first half of this year,"
says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board's Consumer
Research Center. "And, recent advances in the Present Situation
Index, now at its highest level since May 2002, suggest
consumers will not dramatically alter their spending in the
months ahead."
Consumers' overall assessment of current conditions improved
in January. Those claiming business conditions are "good"
increased to 26.0 percent from 24.4 percent. However, those
claiming conditions are "bad" rose to 18.2 percent from 17.8
percent.
The employment picture was also more favorable. Consumers
saying jobs are "plentiful" increased to 20.7 percent from 19.4
percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" fell to
24.7 percent from 26.4 percent.
Consumers' short-term outlook, while not as optimistic as a
month ago, remains positive. Those anticipating business
conditions to improve in the next six months declined to 21.1
percent from 22.4 percent. Consumers expecting business
conditions to worsen increased moderately to 8.0 percent from
7.7 percent.
The outlook for the labor market remains virtually unchanged.
Now, 16.3 percent of consumers, compared to 16.4 percent last
month, expect more jobs to become available in the coming
months. Those expecting fewer jobs edged up to 15.5 percent from
15.3 percent. Consumers expecting their incomes to improve in
the months ahead edged down to 18.0 percent from 21.0 percent
last month.
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