“My projection for Christmas 2003 is a 4.8%
increase over a year ago, due to consumers spending more on each
individual gift and consumers buying more gifts this year than
last year,” Beemer says.
Beemer’s holiday predictions have come within
.5% of the actual 8 of the last 9 years. His forecast of 2.8%
last year was spot-on.
Here are Beemer’s highlights from the ARG
Christmas 2003 survey:
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Christmas week will be the big vacation week,
so retailers should not count on the weekend before Christmas
to save them.
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Consumers are moving toward shopping more from
the first of December until the weekend before Christmas.
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Retailers note: shoppers wanting 50% off
continues to grow, so waiting until a few days before
Christmas to advertise 50% off could significantly affect
Christmas shopping.
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This will be an even bigger gift
certificate/gift card Christmas, breaking last year’s
record-setter.
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The number of persons getting Christmas gifts
rose from 9.1 last year to 9.76 this year.
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The gifts this year will be much nicer, as the
average amount spent on gifts is at $36.63 this year compared
to $32.28 last year. The top price range last year was
$21-$25, but this year it’s $36-$50.
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Affinity credit card programs rewarding
shoppers for using a particular card have taken hold this
year, allowing consumers to feel they can spend more.
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Home entertaining is back! The number of
Americans planning to entertain this Christmas is at a
ten-year high.
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Those planning to shop on “Black Friday,” the
day after Thanksgiving, is at the lowest since 1997: “crowds”
and “too early to get the real deals” are driving this new
lower trend.
-
“Made in America” and patriotic-themed gifts
are back to pre-September 11th levels and are much less
important.
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With no “must-have” gift item this year,
consumers will pay more attention to retailer advertising and
are giving more Christmas ornaments as gifts.
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The Internet will be bigger this year and
E-Bay’s businesses should be better. Not having a store is not
as big a negative today, but having a store location adds
greater security and confidence for consumers.