“HDTV has been marketed heavily, and although more consumers are aware of it and understand it, the value proposition just isn’t there yet”
Lynne Bartos, Ipsos-Insight, Media & Entertainment research division

For the second time in as many weeks, a national research firm is forecasting weak Holiday sales. America's Research Groups (ARG) latest survey (see story), predicts a slump beginning at Thanksgiving. In their report issued November 11th ARG predicted, "Shopping over Thanksgiving weekend will be the lowest in a decade with only 30.5% planning to shop on Friday, and even fewer shopping the next two days since only 26.3% plan to shop on either that Saturday or Sunday following Thanksgiving."

ARG's survey also lent credence to Rent A Center's claim of high fuel prices affecting same store sales. Of 1,000 consumers questioned, 21.8% said they will spend less due to higher gas prices with most of those spending 10%-15% less.

Ipsos-Insight, a global survey-based marketing research firm, reported today that, according to their most recent survey, "The surge in demand for home-based consumer electronics is cresting."

According to Ipsos-Insight, after a small peak in demand in 2003, consumers interviewed by the company are showing less interest in buying more electronics for the home over the next three months, which includes the upcoming holiday shopping season.

“There is still a healthy interest in replenishing the home with new or replacement items like cell phones and PCs,” said Lynne Bartos, a leader with the company's Cable, Media & Entertainment research division. “But momentum in interest of big ticket items like HDTV and home entertainment systems has leveled off.”

For the third consecutive year, Ipsos-Insight surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,000 U.S. adults as they head into the holiday shopping season to determine their likelihood of buying specific electronics over the next three months. This year, the company asked consumers to choose from a list of 18 home electronics items. Among the survey’s highlights:

Interest levels in big ticket entertainment items, such as home theater systems and HDTV, has leveled off after a 5% jump in 2003 - from 15% likely to buy last year to 13% this year. “HDTV has been marketed heavily, and although more consumers are aware of it and understand it, the value proposition just isn’t there yet,” Bartos said.

The same holds for digital video recorders; despite increased exposure of services like TiVo, interest remains flat at 12% vs. 13% in ’03.

Interest in buying new or replacement cell phones is back to 2002 levels at 27% this year, down from 31% in 2003.

Similarly, about one in four households plans to buy a new PC, on par with 2003 at 25%.

Americans’ Near-Term Purchasing Intentions for Home Technologies “Thinking of technologies for your household, over the next 3 months, how likely do you think you are to buy each of the following?” click to enlarge

Digital cameras and DVD players continue to rank among the most popular items, each holding steady at 22%.

Portable MP3 players show steady but leveled interest at 13% again this year.

Printer manufacturers are in for good news, as more consumers show interest in buying printers this year than before (18% in 2002 and 2003 vs. 21% in 2004). “The advances in printer, paper, and ink technology, lower prices, and presence of digital cameras has jump started an interest in new printers,” said Bartos.

DVD recorder interest remains relatively high at 18%. “Given the level of interest in other, sexier items, it’s surprising this functional product gets this much notice. Consumers may be confusing it with a CD burner,” Bartos added.