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Chief Executives' Confidence in the U.S. Economy Surges
10-09-03
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Chief executives’ confidence in the nation’s economy, which rose last quarter, has now jumped even higher, The Conference Board reports today.

The Conference Board’s Measure of Business Confidence, which had improved to 60 in the second quarter of 2003, climbed to 67 in the third quarter (a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses). The quarterly survey covers approximately 100 CEOs in a wide variety of industries.

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“The continued rise in CEO confidence is strong evidence of a turnaround in corporate performance,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “This is also indicated by an improvement in capital spending plans.”

Chief executives’ assessment of current economic conditions has become considerably more favorable, with the measure rising to 64, up from 55 in the second quarter. The increase was caused by a sharp rise in the percentage of CEOs stating that current economic conditions have improved—60% versus 35% last quarter. In assessing their own industries, however, the increase was more modest: the measure increased to 57 from 52. Close to 36% of survey participants say conditions have improved, up from nearly 33% in the previous survey.

In looking ahead, CEO expectations are very optimistic. Business leaders’ outlook for the economy improved to 73 from 66. Their industry expectations were also more upbeat with the measure rising to 66 from 60.

Capital Spending Plans Improve

Approximately 12% of CEOs report an increase in their companies’ capital spending plans since January of this year, while 31% have scaled back plans. This is a change from 2002, when 11% of business leaders had increased their capital spending plans while 38% had made cuts.

Table 1: Business Exectives' Confidence

 

2000

2001

2002

2003

 

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Measure of Business Confidence

47

31

45

52

48

40

66

61

54

58

53

60

67

Current Economic Conditions vs. 6 Months Ago

47

26

29

38

32

18

60

61

45

52

40

55

64

Expectations for Economy, 6 Months Ahead

45

32

51

59

56

50

72

63

60

63

60

66

73

Expectations for Own Industry, 6 Months Ahead

48

35

55

58

54

52

65

59

58

59

60

60

66

Current Conditions in Own Industry vs. 6 Months Ago

49

39

38

39

33

27

51

60

42

49

38

52

57

www.conference-board.org


 

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