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Consumers’
outlook for the next six months turned considerably
pessimistic. Those anticipating business conditions to
worsen increased to 19.8 percent from 10.0 percent
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had
rebounded in August, plummeted in September. The Index now
stands at 86.6 (1985=100), down from 105.5 in August. The
Present Situation Index decreased to 108.9 from 123.8. The
Expectations Index fell to 71.7 from 93.3 last month.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative
sample of 5,000 U.S. households.
“Hurricane Katrina, coupled with soaring gasoline prices and
a less optimistic job outlook, has pushed consumer confidence to
its lowest level in nearly two years (81.7 in October 2003) and
created a degree of uncertainty and concern about the short-term
future,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board
Consumer Research Center. “Historically, shocks have had a
short-term impact on consumer confidence, especially on
consumers’ expectations. Fuel prices remain high, though they
have retreated in recent days, and when combined with a weaker
job market outlook, will likely curb both confidence and
spending for the short-run. As rebuilding efforts take hold and
job growth gains momentum, consumers’ confidence should rebound
and return to more positive levels by year-end or early 2006.”
Consumers’ overall assessment of ongoing conditions was
considerably less favorable in September. Those claiming
business conditions are “good” declined to 25.2 percent from
29.7 percent. Those claiming conditions are “bad” increased to
17.7 percent from 15.1 percent. The employment picture was also
less upbeat. Consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” increased
to 25.4 percent from 23.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are
“plentiful” fell to 20.1 percent from 23.6 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for the next six months turned
considerably pessimistic. Those anticipating business conditions
to worsen increased to 19.8 percent from 10.0 percent. Those
expecting business conditions to improve declined to 15.3
percent from 18.7 percent.
The outlook for the labor market also soured. Those expecting
more jobs to become available in the coming months decreased to
14.0 percent from 16.4 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs
increased to 25.0 percent in September, up from 17.3 percent in
August. The proportion of consumers anticipating their incomes
to decrease in the months ahead rose to 10.8 percent from 8.9
percent last month.
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