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Chief executives’ confidence in the
nation’s economy, which rose last quarter, has now jumped even higher, The
Conference Board reports today.
The Conference Board’s Measure of Business Confidence, which had
improved to 60 in the second quarter of 2003, climbed to 67 in the third quarter
(a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative
responses). The quarterly survey covers approximately 100 CEOs in a wide variety
of industries.
“The continued rise in CEO confidence is strong evidence of a
turnaround in corporate performance,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The
Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “This is also indicated by an
improvement in capital spending plans.”
Chief executives’ assessment of current economic conditions has
become considerably more favorable, with the measure rising to 64, up from 55 in
the second quarter. The increase was caused by a sharp rise in the percentage of
CEOs stating that current economic conditions have improved—60% versus 35% last
quarter. In assessing their own industries, however, the increase was more
modest: the measure increased to 57 from 52. Close to 36% of survey participants
say conditions have improved, up from nearly 33% in the previous survey.
In looking ahead, CEO expectations are very optimistic. Business
leaders’ outlook for the economy improved to 73 from 66. Their industry
expectations were also more upbeat with the measure rising to 66 from 60.
Capital Spending Plans Improve
Approximately 12% of CEOs report an increase in their companies’
capital spending plans since January of this year, while 31% have scaled back
plans. This is a change from 2002, when 11% of business leaders had increased
their capital spending plans while 38% had made cuts.
| Table 1: Business
Exectives' Confidence |
|
|
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
|
|
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
|
Measure of Business Confidence |
47 |
31 |
45 |
52 |
48 |
40 |
66 |
61 |
54 |
58 |
53 |
60 |
67 |
|
Current Economic Conditions vs. 6
Months Ago |
47 |
26 |
29 |
38 |
32 |
18 |
60 |
61 |
45 |
52 |
40 |
55 |
64 |
|
Expectations for Economy, 6 Months
Ahead |
45 |
32 |
51 |
59 |
56 |
50 |
72 |
63 |
60 |
63 |
60 |
66 |
73 |
|
Expectations for Own Industry, 6
Months Ahead |
48 |
35 |
55 |
58 |
54 |
52 |
65 |
59 |
58 |
59 |
60 |
60 |
66 |
|
Current Conditions in Own Industry vs.
6 Months Ago |
49 |
39 |
38 |
39 |
33 |
27 |
51 |
60 |
42 |
49 |
38 |
52 |
57 |
www.conference-board.org
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