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Britt Beemer America's Research Group articles most recent first Beemer Predicts Retail Train Wreck Consumers Postponing Major Purchases; Jewelry Hardest Hit Furniture Buying Index Falls in May Consumers Shift Spending To What They Need, Not What They Want Furniture Buying Index Drops Two More Points; Wal Mart Expands Home Furnishings In Midst of Sluggish Furniture Sales Beemer - Many Retailers In Free Fall After Disappointing December August Retail Sales Surge; Home Furnishings, Accessories Lag behind Expert Predicts Back-to-School Spending to Grow Meagerly in 2007 Retail Shopping Takes A Holiday Early Indications Are For A Frugal First Quarter Independent Retailers Outperformed Chain Stores In December Britt Beemer Lowers Forecast of Christmas Retail Sales to 2.7% Rise Over Last Year; Lack of “Must Have” Item to Blame Want To Drive Shoppers Away? Decorate Stores Less and Don’t Say “Merry Christmas” 2006 Q4 Shoppers Study Revealing; Cyber Monday a Hoax, Biggest Retail Push Will Be After December 15th 10 Trends For Retail Christmas 2006 Survey; Parents Cite High Gas Prices As Primary Reason For Limiting Back To School Spending Families Reduce Summer Spending As Gas Prices Rise Or Was It? New Survey Casts Doubt On Rosie Black Friday Survey; Bargain Hunters Drive June Results Top 10 Retail Stores For April; Discounts Drive Traffic Survey Says Americans Extremely Optimist About The Future 37% Of Shoppers Noticed Less Christmas Decorations In Stores; Spent Less As A Result America’s Research Group; Shopping Levels Increasing But Still Expected To Be Lackluster 3.2% Over 2003 Lack Of Hot New Product Weighing Heavily On Holiday Shopping Survey Of Thanksgiving Weekend Shoppers; "We're Not Impressed"; 45% Say Discounts Not Enough Britt Beemer’s Christmas 2004 Sales Forecast; 19% Will Spend More Since Bush Was Reelected Seven Things Your Store’s Appearance Tells Your Customers Britt Beemer Cites Convenience As Key To Drawing Male Shoppers Beemer Lowers Christmas Sales Projection to 4.2% Increase This Year Compared To His Earlier 4.8% Sales Increase survey 31.0% of Americans Who Planned to Shop Thanksgiving Weekend Did Not Get Around To It Study Shows 11% Increase In Consumer Spending For Appliance, Electronics, Computers Britt Beemer Predicts 4.8% Increase In Holiday Spending survey Furniture Leads All Categories For Shopping Levels Over Labor Day Weekend survey Consumers Plan to Spend 10% More on Back to School Furniture Buying Index Up One Point Buying furniture is on consumers’ minds, but not a top priority Shopping Is Not a Big Priority for Many Americans The Incredible Shrinking Customer Base How Loyal is Your Customer? The Loyalty American Consumers Have Towards Brand Products

"George Bush’s re-election is a positive to 19.1% who will spend more while only 11.1% will spend less"
From Brit Beemer's Christmas 2004 Sales Forecast

Britt Beemer (bio)
America's Research Group
The long-awaited Christmas sales forecast by Britt Beemer of America’s Research Group for Christmas, 2004 will be 3.2% up over last year. This forecast was delayed by 10 days due to the Presidential election due to the 48% of consumers who needed that race to end before thinking about Christmas shopping. Britt Beemer has accurately predicted the last eight of the last nine Christmases within a half of one percent.

The 12 Big Stories of Christmas

1. With no “hot” toy, no “big” electronics item or “must have” apparel item, only 37.3% of consumers are planning to buy something for themselves and most of those plan to spend $50 or less.

2. The average number of people receiving gifts will be 9.87 people and the biggest gift range will be $36-$50 with the average gift being $38.39.

3. The lack of that “hot” toy is most evident with 43.1% saying their children are not asking for anything this Christmas. The top 5 toys kids are asking for are:

Nintendo/Play Station -- 13.0%
Barbie -- 9.6%
Bicycle -- 9.1%
Computer games -- 7.6%
Doll babies -- 6.5%

4. Now, 21.8% say they will spend less due to higher gas prices with most of those spending 10%-15% less and the average for spending less is 13.3% due to higher gas prices.

5. Shopping over Thanksgiving weekend will be the lowest in a decade with only 30.5% planning to shop on Friday, and even fewer shopping the next two days since only 26.3% plan to shop on either that Saturday or Sunday following Thanksgiving.

6. The top 5 gifts to be given this Christmas are:

Toys -- 29.1%
Electronics -- 21.1%
Jewelry -- 18.6%
Perfume/cologne -- 17.6%
Children’s clothes -- 13.1%

7. The average amount spent by American families will be $884.98 and there is a virtual tie with 20.7% planning to spend $751-$1,000 and 20.5% planning to spend $501-$750.

8. For those 23.7% who plan to buy on the Internet their top 5 items are:

Books -- 19.5%
Computer software -- 16.4%
DVDs -- 16.1%
Toys -- 16.0%
Linens -- 15.5%

9. The majority of Americans, 56.1%, plan to do the most of their shopping from early December to December 20th. Only 2.4% are currently finished and only 13.9% plan to wait to the end to do their shopping in the last 3-4 days.

10. Sixty-six percent (65.6%) believe retailers will lower their prices before Christmas and 63.3% say they believe 50% off sales are genuine. There is a group, 20.0% who will wait for those 50% off sales and 96.0% of those will radically slash their spending if they don’t see 50% off at their favorite stores.

11. The popularity of gift cards is still strong with 38.1% planning to give gift cards this Christmas. This compares to 48.6% last year planning to give gift cards at this time.

12. The top 5 toys parents and grandparents are planning to give their children are:

Nintendo/Play Station -- 25.5%
Barbie -- 22.5%
Bicycle -- 19.1%
Action figures -- 18.8%
Hand-held games -- 16.5%

Other Highlights
1. George Bush’s re-election is a positive to 19.1% who will spend more while only 11.1% will spend less.

2. Only 21.9% plan to be on vacation either the week before or after Christmas and the week before Christmas will be when most take off for their Christmas break.

3. It is interesting that 67.6% feel their family is better off this Christmas compared to last year.

4. Thirty-two percent (32.4%) plan to spend more while 19.8% plan to spend less.

5. Giving Christmas decorations as gifts continues to be strong for 22.3% due to the lack of a “hot item” this Christmas.

6. A majority, 53.3% expect stores to be short-handed this Christmas and 52.9% of those will avoid those stores where sales help is inadequate and the lines are too long.